Remembering Kay Rossi Ph.D.

LifeRing convenor Carola Z. writes:

Kaye Rossi, PhD, was a psychologist and addiction counselor at the Center for Recovery at John Muir/Mt. Diablo Hospital in Concord. She passed away on June 16th. She was 52.

Kaye was pro-LifeRing and I actually first heard about Lifering through her. We once asked her to be on our Advisory Board. Some of you on this list may have known her, too.

I first met Kaye when I checked into the CFR alcohol recovery program 6 ½ years ago. She had a great impact on me and my recovery. I joined her after-care-group, however, I dropped out after a year since I thought I could recover on my own without any group support. I relapsed shortly after and called Kaye the very next day. “I’m glad you called…” she said and pointed me into the right direction – I rejoined her after-care-group and went to LifeRing meetings. Now, 5 ½ years later, I am a Board Member and lead weekly meetings where I often quote from Kaye’s insights. I would like to share this one:

In one of her group sessions, a young man who was going to go on a safari trip to Africa soon, expressed his concern about possibly being triggered to relapse when gathering around the campfire. “Use your cellphone and call somebody” was the advice he got from a group member and he replied: “At $3.00 per minute, that’s expensive!” Kaye simply asked him: “So, what’s it worth – your sobriety?” That stuck in my mind.

A couple of years later around dinner time, I got upset about my mother-in-law and while looking at our worn-out, hand-me-down rug under our dining room table that she had given us, I was seriously contemplating getting drunk. “What’s it worth – your sobriety?” I remembered and instead, I asked my daughter to come with me that evening to buy a new rug. We did.

I never buy on impulse, and this one cost me $450.00. Was it worth it? Absolutely, Kaye!

I will never forget her.

-Carola

Thank you, Carola. Outstanding treatment professionals like Kaye Rossi are priceless, and their loss is a blow to the whole community of recovering people. My sympathies to her family and to all her clients.

Once again on the AA dropout rate

Many people are now aware of the statistic that 95 per cent of newcomers in AA drop out during the first year. Out of one hundred who start, at the end of one year, only five are left.

I first learned this statistic from the Bufe volume, reviewed here. Bufe attributed it to AA's own Membership Surveys. However, I drew a blank -- and some hostile looks -- when I visited the AA library up on Riverside Drive in 2005 and asked to see the original survey reports. Since Bufe might be accused of anti-AA bias, I wanted a less impeachable source. Thanks to a very knowledgeable psychology Ph.D., I now have it, and it's very interesting.

Don McIntire of Burbank CA was given access to the AA membership surveys from 1968 through 1996. He is a staunch defender of AA and cannot be accused of negative bias. His article "How Well Does A.A. Work? An Analysis of Published A.A. Surveys (1968-1996) and Related Analyses/Comments" in the Alcoholism Treatment Quarterly (Vol 18, No. 4, 2000) centers on the 5 per cent one-year retention rate and attempts to explain it.

The 95 per cent dropout rate is anything but a statistical fluke. AA's own membership surveys demonstrated the identical pattern, give or take trivial variations, in five successive triennial data collections spanning twelve years. McIntire depicted the trends in a graph (inset) showing a fairly tight braid whose strands are the data sets from different years. The five per cent figure is the average of the five studies.

Most of the attrition, McIntire's analysis shows, comes during the first 30 days. This is not obvious from the graph. The graph begins at 30 days. If you can read the tiny numbers on the x axis, you will see that the bundle of line graphs begins at around the 20 per cent mark. If the graph began at Day One and 100 per cent, the lines would drop almost like a rock.

• McIntire found that an average of 81 per cent of AA first-time attendees dropped out during the first 30 days.

• At the end of 90 days, 90 per cent of newcomers have dropped out; only ten per cent are left. (This gives a new dimension altogether to the "90 in 90" slogan, doesn't it?)

• The attrition curve from 90 days to a full year is, by comparison, rather gentle: from ten per cent to five percent, a relative loss of "only" fifty per cent.

McIntire, who (as I said) is a staunch defender of AA, argues that the attrition during the first 90 days should just be ignored, and that AA should claim a 50 per cent success rate based on the trend from 91 days to one year.

The author's apologetic argument is that the FTA's (first time attendees) who drop out quickly aren't really alcoholics, or aren't really trying to get sober, and so they shouldn't count. Although that has a ring of plausibility for some cases, the author presents no data as to percentages.

AA co-founder Bill W., looking at numbers of this type, asked "What happened to the 600,000 who approached AA and left?" (Reported in White, Slaying the Dragon, p. 139) Despite Wilson's concern, apparently nobody in AA has ever, yet, bothered to try to contact any of the 95 per cent to try to find out their reasons for leaving.

We know from other data that alcoholics who don't do AA can nevertheless succeed in achieving long-term sobriety. In fact, the AA Grapevine has conceded that the majority of alcoholics who achieve the milestone five-year mark do it without using AA. (Vaillant., 1996, 2001)

Consequently, it's extremely unlikely that lack of motivation to get sober accounts for the 95 per cent AA dropout rate. Lack of desire to get sober is undoubtedly a part of the picture, but there has to also be a healthy percentage of the 95 per cent dropouts -- perhaps a majority -- who want to get sober but drop out of AA for other reasons.

McIntire's article never looks at this bigger picture. To do so would be to confront the reality that AA is driving people away who have a sincere desire to get sober (and many of whom will achieve that aim).